行動網際網路產業重組 (三) 用戶群體不一樣

‧數位之牆 2010/11/01
文：黃紹麟

 

筆者在前兩篇文章中指出，「介面優秀的操作系統，軟體數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」這三者將是角逐行動網際網路市場的三大關鍵，並說明搶占用戶的手機桌面是最重要的核心。然而這看起來是只有巨頭能做的事情，其他的企業能做什麼？

手機上網更加獨立，不再是電腦上網的補充。

◎萬變不離4C領域

筆者在前兩篇文章中指出，「介面優秀的操作系統，軟體數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」這三者將是角逐行動網際網路市場的三大關鍵，並說明搶占用戶的手機桌面是最重要的核心。然而這看起來是只有巨頭能做的事情，其他的企業能做什麼？

就跟以電腦為基礎的網際網路一樣，最終也只有谷歌，雅虎等少數的公司占據了最大的市場。而其餘的網際網路企業，在各自的利基市場中也能發展。對於這些為數眾多的企業來說，最關鍵的是1)有什麼創新的應用？2)能夠從哪些通路進駐用戶手機桌面？

從應用層面來看行動網際網路，就不免要問：手機上網與電腦上網的特性究竟有何不同？用戶群體有何不同？有無可能產生新的應用，或是延伸自電腦網際網路的應用？其實，萬變不離其宗，手機上網的應用一樣會是來自下列四種領域：

通訊（Communication ），內容（Content ），社群（Community ），商務（Commerce）。這四者在過去被筆者稱為網際網路的四根柱子，簡稱4C。隨著網際網路發展，這四個領域彼此交相融合，又發展出更多新模式。現在，行動網際網路的發展依然不脫這四個領域。

然而，手機上網之前要嘛被視為是電腦上網的補充或延伸（也圍繞著這個概念來發展應用），要嘛就被視為是完全不同的市場（例如完全針對使用山寨手機上網的所謂三低人群：低齡，低學歷，低收入發展出完全不同於電腦的應用）。這個情況，現在開始有了變化。

◎用戶群體的變化

在中國，以往手機上網的最大宗用戶群體，並不是上班族。在這個產業裡工作的人都很清楚，學生，民工等經濟條件相對較差的人，因為買不起電腦，也不見得願意為其他的娛樂花錢，一支手機包月上網，能夠提供他們相當低成本的娛樂。

這群人形成了中國最大的手機上網人口。開發手機上網應用給這群人使用時，除了要考慮什麼樣的應用是他們需要的之外，還要顧慮到他們沒有電腦的使用經驗。這些人一方面說不清什麼是智慧型手機，一方面搞不清楚在App Store （應用商城）付費下載是什麼概念。

而上班族，普遍有著以電腦上網的經驗。對他們來說，手機上網並不是急迫或者非用不可的，進了公司有著較大的螢幕螢幕可用，上網經驗更舒服。在iPhone出現以前，都市裡的上班族是很少使用手機上網的。他們在戶外的時間不多，因此寧可等回辦公室在上網。

iPhone等智慧型手機的出現，並不是做為電腦的補充角色出現的。對上班族來說，一樣舒適的上網經驗，讓手機不再是「沒電腦可用時的替代品」。除了更願意使用手機上網之外，甚至出現了明明人在電腦前，還使用iPhone上網的情況。

手機上網更加獨立，不再是電腦上網的補充。對現有網際網路業者來講，以前只考慮把部分功能搬到手機上給用戶在無法接觸電腦的情況下用，現在可把網站全部功能實現在手機上。然而這也意味著，所有應用開發者在智慧型手機上都是從頭來過，這帶給了創業者新的機會。

◎應用特性與推廣通路

談到手機上網應用開發，很多人會指出「能識別用戶的地理位置」是重要特性，也是業界常常提到的LBS （基於地理位置的服務Location Based Service）。然而，筆者對此抱著比較負面的看法，因為LBS 至少已經談了10年，卻從沒有過什麼重大的應用席捲全球。

歷史上曾有過大量的交友服務商，想把地理位置因素放到應用中（例如可和附近陌生人交流之類的），但卻從沒有成功的。地理位置信息的敏感特性，可能在最前面所說的4C當中，比較不適合應用在社群類別的服務。但在另外的 3個 C當中，應該還有相當大的開發空間。

用戶的地理位置信息，在內容的領域上能怎麼應用？在通訊領域上？在電子商務領域上？這樣的思考方向將幫助我們思考是否可能出現新的應用。然而，不要對地理位置信息的期望過大，他有點像一道美味的料理上的調味料，畫龍點睛，但不會是全部。

最後，新的應用開發者免不了要透過通路來進入用戶的手機桌面。電信業者並不一定是重要通路，原因是其本身對於行動上網產業的控制力在下降。另一方面，傳統的WAP 網站雖然擁有大量流量基礎，但是面向的人群卻是三低人群而不是上班族，不一定是正確的推廣通路。

本文一再提及的「介面優秀的操作系統，軟體數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」這三者，本身就指出了推廣的通路。跟隨著有能力進入用戶終端的企業，將能快速擴大裝機數量。誰能掌握上述三者，誰就會是優先可以進入的推廣通路。

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行動網際網路產業的重組（二）占終端者得天下

圖文／數位之牆    本文發表於2010/10/03

搶占用戶的終端是最重要的事情，而這件事情並非人人能做，各自的方法與優勢也都不同。

◎歷史總是驚人的相似

筆者在上一篇文章中指出，「介面優秀的操作系統，軟體數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」這三者將是角逐行動網際網路市場的三大關鍵。其實，這三大關鍵的背後直指一個核心：搶占裝機量（Install Base），再說得更白話一點：搶占用戶的手機桌面。

回顧過往的網際網路發展路程，會發現歷史有著驚人的相似之處。微軟Windows 95推出，以圖形化操作介面取代了DOS 文字介面，隨後幾年大量普及到一般家庭，可說為後來1998年前後的網際網路狂潮預先鋪路。操作介面的革新導致網際網路發展，行動網際網路也一樣。

雅虎在美國剛出現的時候，入口網站這個名詞還沒被發明，當時雅虎做的其實是就是類似hao123的網址導航，收集網址分類登錄。為了拓展用戶，雅虎還跟微軟合作，推出雅虎板的微軟IE瀏覽器，讓用戶下載。當然，這個雅虎版瀏覽器下載安裝後，首頁就是雅虎。

搶占用戶的瀏覽器首頁：您看這像不像目前中國最熱門的手機瀏覽器業者UC Web正在幹的事情？UC Web所開發的手機瀏覽器目前已經占領了中國上億部手機的桌面，瀏覽器打開就是導航網站，營利模式很清晰就是賣廣告。在行動網際網路的初期階段，跑馬圈地是最重要的。

98年前後，網際網路上最熱門的網站類型之一是軟體下載，而現在行動網際網路上最熱門的也是提供軟體下載的應用商城。軟體下載之所以熱門主要是因為初期發展時頻寬不足，很多應用需要下載到用戶電腦以軟體形式進行。目前行動網際網路也有頻寬不足和不穩定等問題。

◎搶占用戶終端的重要性

上述的例子告訴我們，第一：在一個類似網際網路這樣的大舞台崛起初期，想要在裡面當主角，搶占用戶的終端是最重要的事情，而這件事情並非人人能做，各自的方法與優勢也都不同。目前在行動網際網路上能有資格挑戰這件事情的人，蘋果，谷歌還有各大網際網路巨頭。

第二，不論軟體下載，還是瀏覽器下載，網址導航，現在看來是抓用戶的殺手，但其實都各自有其階段性，遲早要功成身退。在行動網際網路市場上沒有實力跟巨頭們去拼殺搶用戶桌面的企業，現在要想的是如何搭著巨人的肩膀起飛，以及眼光放遠點看下個階段的應用。

提到搶占用戶手機桌面，一個看起來很直接但沒什麼指導性作用的意見又被提出來了：打造自有品牌手機。除了先前Google推出的短命的 Nexus One 手機之外，這陣子又謠傳Facebook要推出手機。在中國，至少百度，騰訊及阿里巴巴都有計畫要推出自己的手機。

這些擁有上億用戶的巨頭，應該很了解當年的網際網路是怎麼發展起來的，也知道在初期搶占用戶終端的重要性。谷歌及蘋果都有自己的手機操作系統，綑綁自己的應用商城，從最底層的地方開始搶占。兩者差異在於蘋果自己有手機，谷歌試圖把作業系統裝在所有手機上。

「介面優秀的操作系統，軟體數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」，不論百度，騰訊，阿里巴巴還是Facebook，都不具備。而受到山寨手機產業的啟示，加上谷歌免費授權Android 操作系統，看起來打造自有品牌的手機是能簡單入手的。然而，這是對的嗎？

◎不需要自己生產或銷售手機

筆者先前在電信公司負責行銷方面的工作，最感到困難與好奇的是對於「這支手機會不會賣得很好」沒辦法預測。琳瑯滿目的手機款式放在你眼前，都是不曾在市場上銷售過的新機種，你能猜出來哪一支會大賣？如果押錯寶了，可就會發生手機堆在倉庫裡賣不掉的窘境。

消費者選購手機時影響最大的因素還是造型。然而喜好人人不同，為了將「所有人」都變成用戶，只好盡可能提供越多種款式供選擇越好，才可能將銷售量最大化。類似蘋果iPhone這樣，只靠單一款式席捲天下的手機，幾乎是沒有的。

因此，除非騰訊推出的自有品牌手機，足夠優秀到iPhone這種程度，加上類似於蘋果恐怖的行銷能量，否則騰訊最好一年準備五六款手機堆在倉庫裡等著銷售。而賣手機可是一門專業，簡單來說，手機銷售的操盤經驗，不論百度騰訊阿里巴巴還是Facebook，都是沒有的！

在則，如果目的是搶占用戶的終端桌面，選擇以硬體的方式來增加裝機量實在不是個靈巧的方法。至少在中國我們已經看到了手機瀏覽器業者UC Web，憑著跨作業系統的瀏覽器，已經進入了上億部手機的桌面。如果能有這麼靈巧這麼軟的方式來達成目的，那何必用硬的方式？

令人感到可惜的，中國人依然沒有能力在操作系統這個層面上與西方人一較長短。產業界普遍認為谷歌的Android 加上中國的山寨手機製造能力，將會讓平價智慧型手機大量普及。然而，依靠的依然是外國人的操作系統。我們終究與谷歌和蘋果沒有辦法在同一個層面上競爭。 （文： 【嘉豐資本】投資合夥人黃紹麟)

行動網際網路產業的重組（一）電信業者靠邊站

圖文／數位之牆  本文發表於2010/09/12

介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式，這三者是關鍵。

◎日韓的成功經驗

早先，在全世界範圍內，行動網際網路的成功例子只有日本跟韓國值得拿出來說。這樣的情況持續近十年，全世界電信業者沒有不到日本韓國去學習的。但是從蘋果幾年前推出iPhone乃至現在谷歌Android 風潮，似乎即將終結此一歷史，西方世界重新奪回世人關注的目光。

分析過往日韓的電信業者為什麼能夠成功的領先行動網際網路市場：首先，大一統的手機規格，使得行動網際網路應用開發商得以使用較低成本開發網際網路應用，從而使得應用多元化。在日本，手機規格是由電信業者主導，規格制定完成後，交由各大品牌手機製造商生產。

手機製造商為何甘願依電信業者的規格做開發？因為電信業者承諾將這些手機全部買下，銷售給自己的用戶。電信業者制定的規格包含硬體軟體與應用等層次，只要手機製造商，軟體開發商及網站經營者依規格開發，最終提供給消費者的應用，其使用體驗就能得到保證。

而使用體驗，是行動網際網路是否能成功的關鍵。簡單來說，用習慣了電腦上網的人，換成使用手機等行動終端上網會感覺很受限制。因此，打通了硬體軟體與應用的使用者介面規格是非常重要的。日本與韓國的成功經驗在於，由電信業者出面領頭做完了這個最關鍵的部分。

由於規格明確，開發網際網路應用（在日韓大部分指的是手機網站）的開發商就不必為了應付大量不同規格的手機規格而叫苦連天，因之應用的開發速度與產量都得到提升。行動網際網路上的應用增多，對消費用戶吸引力更大因而更多人使用，從而使整個產業鏈向上提升。

◎圍繞著使用者體驗的核心

這樣的故事何以沒有在全球其他國家或地區重演？主因是日本韓國的電信業者有一手主導手機規格的實力及意願。在由西方世界所建構起來的 GSM行動通信市場環境下，手機製造商已形成了多個品牌，各有特色，電信業者沒有能力或者沒有意願去整合不同品牌的手機規格。

舉例來說，類似像諾基亞這樣的強勢手機品牌，就很難放棄自己的手機規格主導權而遷就某家電信公司的要求。更何況，論及手機製造的專業，到底是電信業者強還是手機製造商強？（在日本是相反的，在日本，一流的手機技術人員集中在電信業者，比手機製造商還強）

電信業者對於行動網際網路的使用者介面到底有多在意，以及願意投入多少心力以及資金去研究，其次圍繞著這樣的核心去打通硬體，軟體以及應用的規格，最後有決心跳入硬體銷售的環節當中，把手機當成自己的手機而不是手機製造商的手機來銷售。

我們很容易看出來，除了韓國與日本以外，全世界沒有其他的電信業者願意幹上述的事情，或者幹得不徹底不漂亮，就連全世界擁有用戶數最多的中國移動都不見得能幹成這個事。然而，消費者的需求是存在的，最終，蘋果一肩挑起了上述所有的事情，冒險一跳，成了。

「圍繞著使用者體驗的核心，打通硬體軟體與應用的規格」這件事情是日韓電信公司在行動網際網路市場的成功經驗，在西方世界裡卻由蘋果與谷歌等公司完成。前者涉入了手機終端銷售的環節，後者則是將規格開放給手機製造商。電信業者，在這一輪大潮中被邊緣化了。

◎掌握三大核心才是關鍵

許多人評價蘋果iPhone成功的原因，說是因為他具有一個應用商城（ App Store ）能提供大量應用服務給消費者，從而帶給消費者購買手機硬體之外的附加價值。順著這樣的評價，很容易就得出一個實際上沒什麼用處的結論：建立並擁有應用商城的電信業者就能保證其成功。

上述結論之所以膚淺的地方在於，電信業者過去十年中想仿效日本韓國的成功經驗都沒成，何以現在仿製一個蘋果的應用商城這件事情就成了？更何況日韓電信業者過往的成功經驗與現在蘋果iPhone成功的核心經驗十分相似？

事實上，到目前為止全球最成功的應用商城只有蘋果的應用商城。其他的應用商城包含Google以及Nokia 的，商城上的應用數量以及使用人數都小於蘋果的。在中國，電信業者自建的應用商城也沒什麼人使用，最後僅剩收費渠道的優勢而已（下載應用可以從電信帳單扣費）。

在中國，許多人看好由谷歌Android 帶來智慧型手機的山寨風潮，認為Android 開放特性加上山寨機廠商量產能力，全面爆發是指日可待。問題是這樣的爆發跟電信業者有何關係？當然，電信業者是能夠多收一點上網通信費，除此之外其他事情與電信業者再無瓜葛。

介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式，這三者是關鍵。蘋果把這三者做到了極致；谷歌決定把不擅長的手機設計製造交給製造商做；諾基亞看似三者具備，問題在於其企業不具備網際網路基因，只把自己當成一家SP在做行動網際網路。

電信業者擁有龐大的用戶群，堅實廣布的銷售通路，直接跟用戶收費的能力。若能妥善的運用上述能力，將「介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」三大核心掌握，才可能在這波大潮中掌握主導。否則，被邊緣化的結果將不可避免。 （文： 【嘉豐資本】投資合夥人黃紹麟)

行動網際網路產業的重組（一）電信業者靠邊站

 

介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式，這三者是關鍵。

◎日韓的成功經驗

早先，在全世界範圍內，行動網際網路的成功例子只有日本跟韓國值得拿出來說。這樣的情況持續近十年，全世界電信業者沒有不到日本韓國去學習的。但是從蘋果幾年前推出iPhone乃至現在谷歌Android 風潮，似乎即將終結此一歷史，西方世界重新奪回世人關注的目光。

分析過往日韓的電信業者為什麼能夠成功的領先行動網際網路市場：首先，大一統的手機規格，使得行動網際網路應用開發商得以使用較低成本開發網際網路應用，從而使得應用多元化。在日本，手機規格是由電信業者主導，規格制定完成後，交由各大品牌手機製造商生產。

手機製造商為何甘願依電信業者的規格做開發？因為電信業者承諾將這些手機全部買下，銷售給自己的用戶。電信業者制定的規格包含硬體軟體與應用等層次，只要手機製造商，軟體開發商及網站經營者依規格開發，最終提供給消費者的應用，其使用體驗就能得到保證。

而使用體驗，是行動網際網路是否能成功的關鍵。簡單來說，用習慣了電腦上網的人，換成使用手機等行動終端上網會感覺很受限制。因此，打通了硬體軟體與應用的使用者介面規格是非常重要的。日本與韓國的成功經驗在於，由電信業者出面領頭做完了這個最關鍵的部分。

由於規格明確，開發網際網路應用（在日韓大部分指的是手機網站）的開發商就不必為了應付大量不同規格的手機規格而叫苦連天，因之應用的開發速度與產量都得到提升。行動網際網路上的應用增多，對消費用戶吸引力更大因而更多人使用，從而使整個產業鏈向上提升。

◎圍繞著使用者體驗的核心

這樣的故事何以沒有在全球其他國家或地區重演？主因是日本韓國的電信業者有一手主導手機規格的實力及意願。在由西方世界所建構起來的 GSM行動通信市場環境下，手機製造商已形成了多個品牌，各有特色，電信業者沒有能力或者沒有意願去整合不同品牌的手機規格。

舉例來說，類似像諾基亞這樣的強勢手機品牌，就很難放棄自己的手機規格主導權而遷就某家電信公司的要求。更何況，論及手機製造的專業，到底是電信業者強還是手機製造商強？（在日本是相反的，在日本，一流的手機技術人員集中在電信業者，比手機製造商還強）

電信業者對於行動網際網路的使用者介面到底有多在意，以及願意投入多少心力以及資金去研究，其次圍繞著這樣的核心去打通硬體，軟體以及應用的規格，最後有決心跳入硬體銷售的環節當中，把手機當成自己的手機而不是手機製造商的手機來銷售。

我們很容易看出來，除了韓國與日本以外，全世界沒有其他的電信業者願意幹上述的事情，或者幹得不徹底不漂亮，就連全世界擁有用戶數最多的中國移動都不見得能幹成這個事。然而，消費者的需求是存在的，最終，蘋果一肩挑起了上述所有的事情，冒險一跳，成了。

「圍繞著使用者體驗的核心，打通硬體軟體與應用的規格」這件事情是日韓電信公司在行動網際網路市場的成功經驗，在西方世界裡卻由蘋果與谷歌等公司完成。前者涉入了手機終端銷售的環節，後者則是將規格開放給手機製造商。電信業者，在這一輪大潮中被邊緣化了。

◎掌握三大核心才是關鍵

許多人評價蘋果iPhone成功的原因，說是因為他具有一個應用商城（ App Store ）能提供大量應用服務給消費者，從而帶給消費者購買手機硬體之外的附加價值。順著這樣的評價，很容易就得出一個實際上沒什麼用處的結論：建立並擁有應用商城的電信業者就能保證其成功。

上述結論之所以膚淺的地方在於，電信業者過去十年中想仿效日本韓國的成功經驗都沒成，何以現在仿製一個蘋果的應用商城這件事情就成了？更何況日韓電信業者過往的成功經驗與現在蘋果iPhone成功的核心經驗十分相似？

事實上，到目前為止全球最成功的應用商城只有蘋果的應用商城。其他的應用商城包含Google以及Nokia 的，商城上的應用數量以及使用人數都小於蘋果的。在中國，電信業者自建的應用商城也沒什麼人使用，最後僅剩收費渠道的優勢而已（下載應用可以從電信帳單扣費）。

在中國，許多人看好由谷歌Android 帶來智慧型手機的山寨風潮，認為Android 開放特性加上山寨機廠商量產能力，全面爆發是指日可待。問題是這樣的爆發跟電信業者有何關係？當然，電信業者是能夠多收一點上網通信費，除此之外其他事情與電信業者再無瓜葛。

介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式，這三者是關鍵。蘋果把這三者做到了極致；谷歌決定把不擅長的手機設計製造交給製造商做；諾基亞看似三者具備，問題在於其企業不具備網際網路基因，只把自己當成一家SP在做行動網際網路。

電信業者擁有龐大的用戶群，堅實廣布的銷售通路，直接跟用戶收費的能力。若能妥善的運用上述能力，將「介面優秀的操作系統，軟件數量眾多的應用商城，能引發大量購買的手機款式」三大核心掌握，才可能在這波大潮中掌握主導。否則，被邊緣化的結果將不可避免。（文：【嘉豐資本】投資合夥人黃紹麟）

Mobile Advertising Is (Finally) Moving

APRIL 2, 2009

You’ve heard the hype, get ready for the reality.

2008 was the year when mobile media began to catch up with the hype, as both consumers and advertisers embraced mobile technologies like never before.

The true turning point for the industry was the introduction of the smartphone, heightened by Apple’s iPhone launch in mid-2007. The development of third-generation (3G) mobile phones led to better connection speeds, Wi-Fi connectivity and the rise of mobile Internet browsing.

Even marketers are catching up.

In light of the heightened activity and interest, eMarketer forecasts that mobile advertising will rise from $648 million in 2008 to $3.3 billion in 2013.

According to the new eMarketer report, Mobile Advertising and Usage, another critical growth driver was pricing plans that took the mystery out of data usage and encouraged unlimited mobile content consumption.

2009 is shaping up to be a challenging year for digital media—but it will also be a year of major opportunity for businesses with effective digital marketing strategies.

In fact, three important factors are converging to make the mobile channel more attractive to marketers:

• Better Phones: The iPhone represents a radical change in the way the mobile industry works, not only with its design and ease of use, but because it is allowing users to escape many of the restrictions previously imposed by the mobile carriers, opening the device to a wide range of advertising and altering the way users receive and interact with marketing messages.
• Improved Networks: The major US carriers (AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Sprint) have successfully implemented most of their 3G network footprints, resulting in a tremendous amount of bandwidth for the advanced browsers powered by smartphones, shifting the mobile experience closer to the online experience.
• Richer Content: US mobile subscribers increasingly access the Internet from their mobile phones, taking advantage of near-seamless connectivity for e-mail, social networking, games, mobile video and downloaded applications. The expectation now is for an open Internet, not the walled garden of the past.

These developments are transforming the way marketers reach and interact with mobile users.

Mobile Web Usage Higher in China Than U.S.

By Enid Burns, ClickZ, Apr 3, 2009

A larger percentage of people in China own Web-enabled phones than in the United States and they are also more likely to use them to access the Web. The mobile Web characteristics in both countries are reviewed in Netpop | Pocket: "Growing the Mobile Marketplace."

Here are some of the study’s findings:

• Of 57 million people with Web-enabled mobile phones in the U.S., 18 million — or about 31 percent — use the devices to connect to the Web.
• Of 182 million people with Web-enabled mobile phones in China, 102 million — or 56 percent — use the devices to connect to the Web.

In China, people spend a bigger share of their monthly income — about 2 to 3 percent — for their voice and data plans, while in the United States that tally is about 1 percent of monthly income, according to according to Josh Crandall, president of Netpop Research. "It is a surprise because many more people in a higher proportion of the total population are still accessing mobile in China than in the U.S. In fact, extra fees are considered even more of a barrier in the U.S. than they are in China," he said.

However, fees for premium content tend to be lower in China. A song typically costs a dollar in the U.S., but might cost a quarter in China.

Finding new content — especially games and news — plays an important role on mobile. "Discovery of Web service is occurring more frequently now through mobile devices, and continues to grow," said Crandall, defining Web services as content. "And in China more than 10 percent of the population is actually discovering many Web services through the phone first and then migrating to the PC, and we’re starting to see this in the U.S."

Once people find a particular service or site first on their phone, they later look for it when they get to their computer.

While consumers may visit a brand or site on both the Web and mobile Web, a unique experience is necessary for each destination, advises Netpop. "It’s more important to do so now more than ever, and provide them [mobile users] with that experience that is tailored to that device, because it might be their first experience to the brand," Crandall said. "Then bring them back to the PC, through the consistent login experience, a consistent branding experience, offering more marketing abilities through the computer, because the computer may offer more marketing real estate than the mobile device."

Findings from the research are based on an online survey of 4,384 broadband users in the U.S. and 4,269 broadband users in China age 13 and older. The survey is fielded to respondents who are members of research panels using a proprietary sampling methodology to represent the Internet population in each target country.

Three-Quarters of the World’s Messages Sent by Mobile

eMarketer, MARCH 24, 2009

Emerging markets drive mobile communication.

Worldwide communication in the future will be done through mobile devices.

According to TNS Global, 74% of the world’s digital messages were sent through a mobile device in January 2009, a 15% increase over the previous year.

In emerging markets, the trend is even more dramatic; nine out of 10 messages are sent via mobile.

Some of the growth can be attributed to mobile instant messaging. Thirteen percent of all mobile subscribers used the feature, but 41% of smartphone users did so.

Other increases in mobile usage can be attributed to the abandonment of fixed-line telephones.

“As mobile devices slowly take away usage share from fixed services in developed markets, in emerging markets consumers are more likely to by-pass fixed communications altogether and go straight to mobiles,” said Sam Curtis of TNS.

As for developed countries, the PC e-mail remains the most popular message method, but its use is waning.

In Japan, 40 out of 100 e-mails sent are from a mobile device. In North America, 69% of those using e-mail on their mobile phone use it daily, high compared with 43% worldwide.

The trend will increase, TNS says, as smartphones such as the popular iPhone enter the marketplace and gain share.

Getting Closer to Mobile Local Search’s Day

By Michael Boland, Search Engine Watch, Mar 20, 2009

For the better (or worse) part of the decade, claims of mobile marketing’s imminent tipping point have filled the blogosphere and tech conference circuits. The "year of mobile" has perpetually been on the horizon, proving time and time again to only be a desert mirage.

Now we’re closer than ever, but the market is understandably cautious of bold claims about mobile search and location-based services. The amount of crying wolf the market has endured has given it a more scrutinizing eye (probably a good thing).

For the most part, the analyst community has agreed that the oft-cited scenario of walking by a Starbucks and getting hit with a mobile ad isn’t going to happen. The mobile industry and its followers have settled on the more realistic concept of pull-based mobile marketing and mobile local search applications.

Where are we Now?

To define the opportunity for mobile search marketing, a good starting point is to look at consumption. The mobile Web is made up of about 54 million users in the U.S. — about 20 percent of mobile subscribers. The Kelsey Group’s U.S. Mobile Local Media Forecast projects that to grow to 95 million by 2013.

Changing device standards are bringing mobile search into the mainstream. You know the story: the iPhone has set the bar for hardware standards, and clones have entered the market to compete on price.

Meanwhile, carriers, sensing the increased demand for more mobile data consumption, are subsidizing devices to drive long-term data subscriptions. Prices for the new batch of coveted smart phones are settling around $200, making the mobile Web a mass market opportunity for the first time.

The key point is that local will be a big beneficiary of the resulting search volume growth. For the past few years, the percentage of online searches that have local intent has been a bone of contention in search marketing circles. Recent forecast data from The Kelsey Group says it’s around 11 percent.

Whatever the percentage is, it’s going to be higher on the mobile device. This comes with the premise that the portability and location-awareness of the mobile device is highly conducive to local search and local commercial intent. Google thinks so too.

"Local search on the mobile device indexes higher than the desktop by about two to three times," said Diana Pouliot, Google mobile ad sales director.

Mobile Money Making

Given these usage realities, how will they be monetized?

Like the online world, we’ll see lots of ad formats that mirror advertisers’ goals to get clicks, calls, branding, or conversions. Several new forms of mobile marketing will follow the evolving ways users are engaging search applications — particularly at the local level.

The fact that the phone gets you closer to the point of purchase, for example, opens up lots of opportunity for CPA-based campaigns. This can involve data feeds from the likes of Krillion and NearbyNow, which tap into retail inventory systems that indicate local product availability and prices.

These types of searches see high levels of engagement from users, and drive qualified traffic (of the analog variety) to local stores, said NearbyNow CEO Scott Dunlap during the Kelsey Group’s Marketplaces conference earlier this week.

Mobile shopping tools, such as NearbyNow’s Lucky iPhone App, can also close a gap between the online and physical worlds that traditionally has been a source of uncertainty in local search marketing campaign measurement.

"We’re seeing lots of interest from small advertisers that want to drive people into their stores," Dunlap said.

Local Mobile: By the Numbers

Stepping back to a market level, this translates to opportunities for mobile search marketing. But it won’t come without the well-known challenge of reaching the fragmented universe of SMBs. This will be a barrier to wide-scale mobile local marketing, the same way it has been with online search.

As discussed in "Replicating the Web: Will Google Dominate Mobile Search?" Google is trying to make it easier by bundling mobile marketing right into AdWords. We’ll also see it packaged in with other forms of local advertising delivered to SMBs by yellow pages, newspapers, and local search marketing firms like WebVisible and Marchex.

Though these delivery models still need to solidify, one thing is clear: the mobile ad format that will be in demand at the local level will increasingly be search. Though SMS is currently the largest mobile marketing category, continued smart phone penetration will cause search to eclipse the levels of engagement and scale currently seen by display and SMS.

Drilling down, the fastest-growing segment will be the local search — due partly to the premiums that will be placed on geographically targeted mobile advertising. By 2013, it will represent the majority stake of overall mobile search advertising revenues, according to Kelsey.

Once it crosses 50 percent of mobile ad revenues, maybe we can safely say we’ve reached the "year of mobile" — or at least the year of local mobile.

Join us for Search Engine Strategies New York March 23-27 at the Hilton New York. The only major search marketing conference and expo on the East Coast, SES New York will be packed with more than 70 sessions, including a ClickZ track, plus more than 150 exhibitors, networking events, parties, and training days.

 

Biography

Michael Boland
Michael Boland is the program director of The Kelsey Group’s Mobile Local Media program. Mike is a frequent speaker and organizer at top industry conferences including Search Engine Strategies and The Kelsey Group events. Prior to joining The Kelsey Group, Boland spent several years as a technology journalist.

Mobile Advertising: Off-the-Shelf or Custom?

By Courtney Acuff, The ClickZ Network, Dec 13, 2007
Sponsored by Clickatell

I got an e-mail earlier this week with the following headline: "Mobile advertising just got easier!" The announcement was, of course, from my dear friends at MSN informing me of the new opportunity to buy mobile WAP (define) banners across their mobile WAP pages. These pages help connect consumers to MSN content like Windows Messenger, MSNBC, and Hotmail. The announcement states that almost 10 million mobile consumers access MSN WAP pages on a monthly basis. It also clearly points out that the opportunity for media buyers is to extend reach and introduce clients to mobile via an optimization of mobile WAP impressions.

In my grumpy Monday-morning, pre-caffeine state, I mumbled "I wish!" rather loudly and to no one in particular.

It’s not that I don’t think highly of MSN or applaud its move into the space. It’s big news when a reputable traditional and digital media content owner translates offerings into mobile, let alone works toward making it a profitable revenue stream. Rather, I’m naturally skeptical of any e-mail subject header that indicates my job will be made "easier." This is quite a claim for a Monday morning late in the fourth quarter. The term "easy" makes me think of the big red easy button made popular by :30 and :60 commercials; the mobile ecosystem is far from easy-button status when it comes to tactical mobile program executions.

The MSN announcement actually brings up another issue for those involved in selling clients on the mobile space. Regardless of whether you sell from the media side or from within the agency, you have a choice in mobile advertising: including off-the-shelf mobile WAP ad programs in a digital strategy plan or ideating a customizable mobile program. Frankly, neither is easy at this point in the buying process. However, both are worth revisiting as a way to highlight their differences and point out how improvements can eventually be made to get them to resemble the one-stop shop synonymous with the big red button.

Off-the-shelf mobile programs are those that can be included within an RFP (define) response. They usually come from digital media partners or specialized mobile ad networks, both of which speak to the buyer in the digital ad language of impressions and CPMs (define). These buys work well for clients who have good relationships with media vendors or known site destinations. And the MSN announcement will help extend an existing campaign’s reach and represent an optimization of media dollars because there are several types of campaigns that can be linked to the basic WAP ad banner (click-to-video, click-to-promotion, click-to-call, etc.). The challenge, though, lies in educating the client on why mobile CPMs are higher (made trickier when the digital and mobile sites on the plan are the same), why the creative messaging is best not taken exactly from the digital, and why the serving and tracking of WAP ads doesn’t happen (with the majority of publishers) from DoubleClick’s DART for Advertisers or Microsoft’s Atlas.

Custom mobile programs generally take the form of messaging or downloadable applications. These programs require a middleman, better know as a boutique mobile vendor or aggregator, and a case-by-case carrier approval. They often tie into a larger communications plan and need media support to build awareness and, ultimately, consumer participation. The planning time is longer than that needed to execute a basic WAP banner ad program. Additionally, the cost structures involve hosting and development fees that aren’t generally associated with basic WAP programs.

As with any new or emerging media, mobile marketing has its fair share of challenges. Some can be overcome with experience and marketplace education. In other cases, it isn’t that simple. Passionate sellers and eager mobile buyers are in short supply. The marketplace continues to be so liquid that just keeping up with the mergers and acquisitions can be a full-time job. To continue to move this market forward, an open and frank conversation is needed between all facets of the ecosystem. Traditional telcos, television, print, and even digital media players must learn a new language, one that isn’t hyped with the promise of being easy.

 

Biography:

With more than 237 million cell phone users in the U.S. alone, Courtney Jane Acuff’s charge within Denuo as director is to deliver consumer insights and innovative media solutions in the wireless space. Prior to this, Acuff stood at the helm of one of mobile marketing’s most influential media agencies, SMG Digits, where she harnessed mobile communications’ power, influence, and potential. At Digits, she researched, designed, and executed the first-ever domestic, consumer-centric wireless market analysis, providing insights into the medium’s potential for relevant consumer engagement. It was the first effort by an agency to understand consumers’ burgeoning use of mobile applications, the content they access, and how they want the technology to be a part of their lives.

Acuff currently consults for clients such as Walt Disney World, Walgreens, Sprint, and Philip Morris, framing the mobile marketplace and guiding marketing initiatives. She maintains strong relationships with mobile back-end providers and is a founding member of the Mobile Marketing Association. Her influence in the industry earned her coveted recognition as a “Twentysomething to Watch” in 2004 by "Advertising Age." Acuff holds B.A.s in political science and communications, both from Lake Forest College in Illinois.